Don’t be ‘that guy’ at your fantasy football draft

It’s a rare year when I will legitimately consider taking a wide receiver in the first round of my fantasy football draft.

Typically, I’m the guy at the fantasy draft stockpiling running backs in the first two, or even three, rounds of the draft, all the while trash-talking my opponents who get lured into the flash and hype of the National Football League’s top receivers. Sure, Chad OchoCinco and Terrell Owens grab more headlines and create more highlights than, say, New York Giants running back Brandon Jacobs, but guess which one found the end zone more often last year?

(I’ll give you a hint: He’s never had his own reality show or petitioned the NFL to change the nameplate on his jersey.)

Running backs are more consistent in posting 100-yard games and scoring touchdowns than even the best wide receiver, making them a far more logical first-round fantasy pick. Yet, this year, I find myself ignoring all that logic and coveting a wide receiver with one of my top two picks — Arizona Cardinals receiver Larry Fitzgerald.

The talent and productivity Fitzgerald displayed during a brilliant 2008 season is further enhanced by his consistency, which sets him apart from other wide receivers. Fitzgerald had seven 100-yard games last season and his league-high 12 touchdowns came in nine different games. Plus, Fitzgerald hauled in 96 receptions last season and is a mortal lock to catch five passes a game, making him an even bigger asset in leagues that award points per reception.

Though his performance in the NFL Playoffs last season, where he dismantled every defensive scheme thrown at him, didn’t count in traditional fantasy football leagues, it proved his ability to beat double and triple coverages, as well as break away from defenders with a speed not shown in previous seasons. Simply put, Fitzgerald couldn’t be stopped.

While a season like that would be enough to convince most NFL veterans to rest on their laurels during the off-season, Fitzgerald remained dedicated to a regimented workout program, including hosting a camp where two of the game’s all-time greats — Jerry Rice and Cris Carter — provided guest instruction. I don’t just think Fitzgerald can repeat his 2008 performance; I think with a solidified Kurt Warner and a content Anquan Boldin, he will put up even bigger numbers in 2009.

If I pick late in the first round of my fantasy draft and the top running backs are already off the board, I’m setting my sights on Fitzgerald. I will then brace myself for the round of trash-talking I’ll be sure to receive for taking a wide receiver way too early.

The rest of the wide receivers: New England’s Randy Moss still went over 1,000 yards and scored double-digit touchdowns last season, but his inconsistency stood in stark performance to his 2007 effort, when he was a 23-touchdown machine. However, Moss will have Tom Brady back at his side this season, which should boost him back to the No. 2 spot in the wide receiver rankings.

Moss is still a solid third-round pick in any fantasy draft, but I don’t see him as the fantasy hall-of-famer he was during the Patriots’ record-breaking season in 2007.

Houston’s Andre Johnson (1,575 yards and eight touchdowns in 2008) and Carolina’s Steve Smith (1,421 yards and six touchdowns) join Moss in the second tier of wide receivers, though their lower touchdown totals make them a less appealing choice in my view. Still, there are a few young receivers on which I’m willing to take a risk heading into my fantasy draft.

Multiple draft boards have Detroit’s Calvin Johnson ranked as the fifth-best wide receiver in fantasy football, but I’m betting he jumps into the top three behind Fitzgerald and Moss this season. Johnson put up astounding numbers last season (1,331 yards and 12 touchdowns), especially given just how bad the winless Lions were. The Lions might not be much better this year, but Johnson is entering his third season — about the time when receivers fully begin to realize their potential — and should benefit from a healthier sharper Daunte Culpepper.

If all else fails, the Lions could put rookie QB Matthew Stafford, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 draft, under center and let the young guys air it out. It may not win them many games, but it would be a fantasy owner’s dream.

Depending on which fantasy gurus you follow, you’ll find New Orleans’ Marques Colston listed at the tail end or just outside of the top 10 receivers. However, Colston’s 2008 statistics are deceiving. The 6-4, third-year receiver was ineffective in the Saints’ season opener and missed the next six games due to injury. He finished the season with 760 yards and five touchdowns, including a three-game stretch at the season’s end which saw him rack up 306 yards and four scores.

If Colston can stay healthy, if Drew Brees continues his eye-popping production at quarterback, and if Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas can provide a balanced, consistent running game, there’s no reason why Colston can’t be a top five wide receiver.

My late-round “sleeper” (easily the most cliché term in fantasy sports) at the wide receiver position is Buffalo’s Lee Evans. Last season, Evans broke 1,000 yards receiving, but he caught just three touchdowns — a dismal number for a No. 1 receiver. Worse yet, his touchdown totals over the past three seasons are a downward trend — eight, five and three.

Evans is entering just his sixth season, so his statistical dip can’t be attributed to age, but rather to the lack of offensive firepower around him. Expect all that to change thanks to the presence of one man — Terrell Owens. With Owens lining up opposite Evans and defenses unable to double-team either receiver, Evans should be able to rebound from a below-average 2008 season.

Take Evans in a late round, find a replacement for him when the Bills are facing a 3-4 defense — one of quarterback Trent Edwards’ weaknesses — and take advantage of 1,100 yards and a handful of touchdowns.

Tight ends: Frankly, if you plan on taking any tight end before the sixth round of your draft, you’re probably nuts. Of course, these are always the sort of unconventional picks made by the token player in your league who rarely watches a game and has a dorky team nickname, yet somehow wins the league championship.

He may be over the hill by NFL standards and he was stuck playing with a miserable Kansas City team last season, but Tony Gonzalez still managed to snag 96 receptions for 1,058 yards and 10 touchdowns. Now imagine Gonzalez in a multi-dimensional offense that includes QB Matt Ryan, WR Roddy White and RB Michael Turner. Gonzalez should have a couple more productive years in him, and I’m still ranking him tops among fantasy tight ends.

Jason Witten and Antonio Gates are my second and third choices, respectively, among tight ends, though both have question marks surrounding them heading into the 2009 season. Witten (952 yards and four touchdowns in 2008) will be forced to adjust to life after T.O., for better or for worse, which could adjust how defenses cover him. Gates is still the best red-zone target among tight ends, but after two straight nine-TD seasons and a pair of double-digit touchdown totals prior to that, Gates scored eight touchdowns last year. His effectiveness in the red zone will rise or fall with the Chargers’ offense as a whole, which could largely depend on LaDainian Tomlinson’s health and production.

Kickers and defenses: Seemingly every year, the same guy in my fantasy league picks the Ravens’ defense about five rounds too early. Granted, this friend is a former linebacker who once tried out for the Ravens at their training camp, but it’s still the epitome of a “homer” pick — one made solely out of personal allegiance. I always do my best to give him grief over his pick, until he gives me that linebacker’s glare and I get stuck with the New York Jets’ defense.

The difference in point production at the kicker and defense positions is typically small, so don’t worry about filling these slots early in the draft. Pittsburgh’s defense is still the Cadillac of the position following a season in which they sacked opposing quarterbacks 51 times, but the Steelers, Eagles and Ravens are really the only defenses worth consideration for even a mid-round draft pick.

New England’s Steven Gostkowski is the top choice among kickers for the third year running, and Brady’s return to the offense should improve his stock even more. However, the name that jumps out to me most among the kickers is Atlanta’s Jason Elam, who is generally ranked somewhere in the lower half of the top 10 at the position.

Elam seems due to benefit from a much improved offense in Atlanta, where he kicked last year after 15 seasons and one record-tying, 63-yard boot in Denver. Plus, Elam kicks off the pool table-like surface of Atlanta’s Superdome, which also extended the career of aging All-Pro kicker Morten Andersen.

Still, I’m not going to get suckered into drafting a kicker early in the draft. It’s bad enough that I’m already hoping to be that guy who selects the top wide receiver on the board.

For the complete article see the 08-03-2009 issue.

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